The outlook for existing-home sales in 2026 has dimmed, with the National Association of Realtors revising its forecast from a previously expected 14% increase to just a 4% gain. Slower activity early in the year, including a 3.6% drop in March sales, reflects growing caution among both buyers and sellers. Higher mortgage rates, now projected to average around 6.5%, combined with weak consumer confidence and a softer job market are key factors weighing on demand.
Ongoing global tensions, including the Iran war, have also contributed to elevated borrowing costs and gas prices, further impacting affordability. Inventory remains constrained at 1.36 million homes, limiting options despite modest improvements in affordability across some regions. Overall, experts anticipate a relatively flat market in the near term, with gradual improvement possible later in the year.